The Iran war and the escalation of the Yemeni conflict have enabled rebels Huth and the Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to take control of two of the world’s most important maritime corridors, Bab el-Mandebin and Hormuz. The results are a long – term loss and cost.
In late September, 31 ships were passing the Hormuz Strait a day, while prior to the start of the war with Iran, their numbers reached up to 138 per day, the company’s data on sea traffic monitoring, Windward, shows.
And before the war, some 20 million barrels of oil were transported in the strait daily. Between March and May, the figure dropped to 2.7 million barrels a day on average.
According to International Energy Agency ( IEA, by mid – June, Middle Eastern producers had lost more than 1.3 billion barrels in exports, writes Can.
Everything that has been described before the war is no longer worthwhile and is increasingly losing importance in Middle Eastern corridors and sea straits.
The Straits of Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz have never been more limited to navigation, while the passage is made even more difficult by Iran’s deployed sea mines, as well as by the rockets and fears of the Huth and Iran rebels.
How the Middle East Wars Are Changing Oil Transport Flows
The Strait of Hormuz, at its narrowest point, is only 30 miles [33 km] wide, while the sailing corridor is only about two miles [3.2 km] in each direction.
At this narrow crossing, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ( IRC, from May 4th, has been monitoring an area that stretches from Keşm Hym al-Quvene line to Kuh Mobarak Bahiairah. Ships passing through this area must receive permission from Iranian authorities responsible for the strait.
British Marine Agency ( U n KMTO has recorded 23 attacks on ships in the straits and near it since early October.
Alternative Roads Through Saudi Arabia and Emirates
Saudi Arabia has redirected some of its exports through the East European pipeline, with a capacity of seven million barrels a day, towards the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
According to MEES and Kpler data, exports from Yanbu have increased from about 750 thousand barrels a day before the war to four to 4.5 million barrels a day.
The pipeline was damaged in September by a drone attack. Saudi and Iraqi authorities have claimed the fears were released from Iraq. Saudi company Aramco has re-functioned the pipeline, but with reduced capacity.
The United Arab Emirates export 1.8 million barrels of oil per day through the Habshan @wairah pipeline, avoiding Hormuz Strait. According to the IEA, the country’s overall exports rose from 1.9 million barrels a day in March to 4.3 million in early June.
Meanwhile, Iran sends about 90 percent of oil exports across the island of Kharg, while some of it is transported through the Goreh Yask pipeline, some 1,000 miles [1,000 km] long, toward a port outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Yemen and Bab al-Mandeb Strait
On July 20, the Huth rebels declared sea blockades of Saudi Arabia. During the following week, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Bab el-Mandeby fell by 42 percent, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
Yemen’s government claims that on October 5th, with the support of Saudi Arabia, it pushed the Huth rebels off the coast near the strait to the Moka area. However, Reuters has failed to independently verify that claim.
If Bab el Mandeby’s Strait closes, an oil tank leaving Yanbu to Japan must pass through the Suez Canal and sail around the Cape of Good Hope. According to Kpler’s estimates, this route is about 14,700 nautical miles instead of 7,650 miles, extending the journey from four to eight weeks.
A shorter alternative to oil transport to Europe is the combination of the Suez Canal with the Egyptian SUMED pipeline, which has 2.5 million barrels a day.
Harms and Prices
In March, Rystad Energy company estimated that repairing the oil and gas infrastructure in the region would cost at least $25 billion.
Iraq has lost about $60 billion in oil exports due to war, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on October 16th.
According to Kpler’s data, in the last few days of September, gross oil exports from the Middle East exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million barrels a day. However, much of the oil was transported through alternative routes.
On October 16th, a barrel of Brent oil cost $109.86. The price had reached its peak on April 30, when it went up $126,41 per barrel for a short period.
If there is a lesson to be learned from a global economy dependent on oil transport, it is that global trade is becoming increasingly vulnerable to situations in the straits and sea corridors, which are becoming critical points for the global oil supply and trade. /Telegraphy/