Serbian journalist Radomir Dimiqi has warned that Serbia could face political chaos and violence after Sunday’s elections, if both President Aleksandar Vuciq and opposition students declare victory.
In his analysis titled “Caos Election in Serbia: Democracy or dictatorship?
Two scenarios — the same threat of bloodshed — he writes, referring to the possibility that Vuciqi will declare victory regardless of the outcome or refuse to surrender power in case of defeat.
Full text:
CAOS SERBER: DEMORACY AP DISCTAY?
On Sunday, both the SNS and the students will announce victory. Here’s the script if Vucinqi does this first. According to all predictions, despite the outcome, Serbia will most likely face chaos, perhaps even violence. The main issue of Sunday’s election in Serbia is not who will win, but who will prevent the opponent from being declared the first winner. For victories, both Aleksandar Vucinqi and students are convinced, with the distinction that Vucinqi has more mechanisms for manipulation and fraud. Opposers are convinced that Vuciqi will forge a false election.
According to them, Vuciqi has already secured more than 100,000 votes from the so-called regional diaspora in Republika Srpska, Montenegro and Kosovo, while he will not hesitate to use even multiple voting of his followers. And then there is chaos and chaos, which can turn Serbia into the policy that had been installed in Yugoslavia since the mid-1980s. He will most likely announce the victory regardless of the outcome, but the students, respectively, will not recognise him and will be declared victorious themselves. Such is the climate and the spirit that prevails in Serbian society and public opinion, which can lead Serbia to the brink of civil war.
Imagine Vuchchiqi proclaiming victory, students flooding the streets, and police facing them. Then imagine that Vuchiqi loses his election, but his reception device refuses to surrender power. Two scenarios, the same threat of bloodshed. Whoever wins, Serbia, unfortunately, can wake up between the batons of police, tear gas and blood. But the students will absolutely not give up or give up their victory. They have not fought in vain for two years, to accept now quietly defeat. Therefore, neither should the script of a revolution be excluded. If that happens, then in Serbia everything is possible. Everyone will defend their positions because they know that winners will have no mercy on the defeated. According to all predictions, Serbia after the elections, regardless of the outcome, most likely the chaos awaits it, perhaps even with greater or lesser intensity violence. This will be the culmination of Serbian multi-year policy. The circle is closing and the disorder is returning to where it started.
Much of Serbia’s public opinion fears that Serbia could sink into a long-term crisis, on the brink of clashes, precisely because neither side nor Vuciqi nor students intend to release. It is hard to believe which of the parties will quietly accept defeat in such a polarised society, which, to make the absurd even greater, has almost identical attitudes on many issues. This is particularly true of politics towards the region (Kosovo, Montenegro and Republika Srpska), towards Europe (most citizens do not support EU membership) and Russia (not even students are concerned with imposing sanctions). What scenario can we expect in this case? In short, an ominous scenario. It’s all in the hands of the police and the military. SONDAZE PACE could be assumed that both sides will declare their victory even before publishing the results, which, according to recent public opinion polls, are expected to be very close. Some claim Aleksandar Vucinqi’s list will get 45 per cent of the vote, while other polls show that this is exactly what student lists will get. For the student’s victory, election participation is said to be at least 65 percent.
Such participation can be expected in a situation when both sides are convinced of their victory. Aleksandar Vuciqi will not allow him to fall from power. He will neither know nor accept defeat, and he will give up his power. For him and his people, these choices are survival issues, existence, even freedom, considering that they are already being threatened with prison.
In fact, the elections are a referendum for Aleksandar Vucinqi. After one side or the other declares the victory, judging by the current atmosphere, the streets of Belgrade, and perhaps other cities, first of Novi Sad, where this revolution against Vuciqi will be filled with people. Students will either celebrate or protest the theft of elections by Vucinqi, which they are already warning. Such an opportunity cannot be disfellowshipped because, as we said, Vucciki has no intention of handing over his power, especially not peacefully. The most important question, therefore, is how the reception device, currently presented as a supporter of the regime, will be positioned. If Vuciqi declares victory, the protests will most likely escalate and radicalise.
In this complex situation, the question is whether students are ready for a desperate attack on Vuciki’s powers bastions, from political to media. The question also arises whether Vuciqi will decide on a Serbian Tiananmen, which he is already promoting by his radicalised clientist circle, which is protecting the lucrative positions secured during power. Hence, everything depends on the attitude of the reception device and the side it will choose to support. Will the Vuciqi remain faithful to these expectations and expectations, and for how long? Remember that they too soon turned their backs on Slobodan Milosevic. And then what happens? That’s exactly where the paradox is. If we assume that the streets of Belgrade will be flooded by people, the question is how Vuciqi will react.
In fact, how will the gendarmerie, special units, army and its paramilitary coalitions act, for which many Serbian analysts say they are already on alert? Will they risk their lives for Vucin, or will they do the same when they turned their backs on Slobodan Milosevic? One very important fact should not be forgotten: when Milosevic was about to fall, the United States of America and the European Union supported that process and were fully on the side of the opposition. If Vuchchi wins, he declares victory, respectively, his power will be very fragile if he can even form it.
To survive politically, he will be forced to use Putinist methods, which will hardly please Brussels, which is surprisingly being very indifferent to the elections. In fact, to some extent, it seems to be inclined by Vucinqi, who is practically an open anti-European. But we don’t even know what we will gain if students come to power, except that Vuciqi, this pathological autism, will no longer be in charge of the state. Their only agenda has been to bring down Vuciqi and implement lustration, but the question is whether they have enough organisational and logistical capacities to do so. Who controls the device that needs to implement this process, first of all the police and justice, which are completely in the hands of Aleksandar Vuciqi? Of course, this too can change overnight. At least we in the Balkans know very well how easily political attitudes and loyaltys change, depending on the direction of the wind.
There is another possible scenario, if students win by a large margin, as warned at their latest pre-election rally Thursday, attended by over 200,000 people. This scenario is Vucciki’s escape. He realizes he can face responsibility for many things, which he and his men only add to the motivation not to give up so easily. They know you can wait for prison. Therefore, it should not be ignored that somewhere, on a secondary track at Batajnica Airport, it may already be waiting for a full Russian transport plane, Antonov, to take Vucinqiqi to a more peaceful shelter in Minsk or Moscow. So, from Monday, in Serbia everything is possible. All options are open, but mostly those omens.
However, elections in Belgrade and their consequences may be felt too far, even beyond Serbia’s borders. The European Union worries the fact that Serbia represents a vulnerable European defence point in the Balkans, a broader space, respectively, where Russia can exert considerable pressure. Student activists and their supporters are disappointed by what they perceive as the European Union’s indifference to their political struggle.
At the same time, they face widespread conviction abroad that democracy in Serbia is a lost cause. Therefore, on Sunday they aim to prove that such estimates are wrong.
Source Layer: Dukeagini